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Home > Regional
Housing Strategy > The housing market in the North West
The housing market in the North West
A huge amount of research and analysis has been undertaken in the
North West and in other Northern regions over the last few years,
looking at the changing nature of housing markets in many parts
of the urban North. The researchers behind much of this work, Birmingham
University's Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (CURS), sparked
interest in Government and elsewhere with the production of their
report on the North West's M62 Corridor , and a study extending
this to the rest of the region for the North West Housing Forum
has just been completed . Both studies have been funded and informed
by local authorities, RSLs and other regional partners.
CURS' new work focuses not only on the problems and causes of low
demand and low property values, but also on the other side of the
coin - areas where high demand and constricted supply produce housing
markets dysfunctional in their ability to provide enough affordable
housing for local people. While much of the North West falls between
these two extremes, both types of dysfunctional markets have implications
for social inclusion, sustained economic development and quality
of life for people living in affected areas. These issues are considered
in more detail later. This section sets out the context for this
Strategy, informing the themes and priorities we identify for the
North West.
Demographics
The region as a whole is projected to experience a decline in
population of 1.2% between 1996 and 2021. Recently
released Census 2001 data shows decline is actually faster than
projected, with 25 of the 43 districts experiencing population decline
since 1991. Conversely, four districts (Eden, Vale Royal, Congleton
and Crewe & Nantwich) grew by more than 5% between 1991 and
2001. Migration figures show continuing movement out
of urban centres to neighbouring suburban/semi-urban areas and from
there (in smaller numbers) to rural parts of the region. International
migration is variable, in some years balancing the loss of population
to other parts of the UK, which runs at around 10,000 per annum.
The age structure of the region's population is also
changing, with increases in the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ groups projected
and younger age-groups declining in number. Local fluctuations in
these patterns can be significant, with especially big increases
in older people forecast in parts of Cheshire, Lancashire and Cumbria.
Despite declining population, numbers of households
continue to increase, with official projections of an 8% growth
in the twenty years from 2001, varying from 1% in Merseyside to
almost 13% in Cheshire and Cumbria, and totalling an average annual
increase of 11,500 households across the region. 2001 Census figures
indicate a lower rate of household formation than forecast, but
detailed new projections have still to be made.
Housing stock
Of the total of around 3 million dwellings in the North West,
the split between tenures closely follows the national
picture, with slightly higher proportions of owner occupation (69%)
and social renting (20%) and slightly less private renting (11%)
than for England as a whole. English House Condition
Survey 1996 figures suggest that, at 13%, the North West had around
the national average of households living in poor housing. Reported
unfitness levels show a different picture, at 8.5% across tenures
for the North West the highest nationally (2002), with the private
sector (and particularly the private rented sector) worst affected.
House building rates in recent years have varied
substantially within the region, but average overall at around 18,000
per annum from 1998-2002. This compares with annual average rates
of provision in the new Regional Planning Guidance of 12,790 per
annum, albeit net of any replacement of demolished homes. Private
sector demolitions are the highest in the country
(running at over 40% of the national total), but still only at around
625 per annum between 1997 and 2001. Local authority demolitions
are higher, averaging 2,400 per annum in the same period. Regional
Planning Guidance indicates that a substantial acceleration from
current demolition rates may be necessary, and that rates of new
provision must be constrained, if urban renaissance is to be secured.
The North West has the highest proportion of empty property
in England, 4.5% of the stock across all tenures, or over 130,000
dwellings in 2002. Local authority estimates also suggest that over
40% of England's low demand properties are in the
region, almost 440,000 in total, or 14.7% of the region's homes.
House prices
Despite steady increases over recent years, accelerating in
the last year or so, the average house price for the North West
stood at £88,000 in 2002, well below southern or Midlands
levels, with averages ranging from under £39,000 in Burnley
to almost £170,000 in Macclesfield (district). Trends in recent
years have seen the relative gap between low and high price areas
increasing.
Within districts, prices of terraced property have failed to keep
up with other property types across the whole of the region with
the exception of only Chester and Trafford. Analysis down to postcode
sector level shows that terraced property in parts of 17 districts,
from Copeland in the North to Halton in the South, experienced an
absolute decline in value between 1995 and 2002.
At the same time, all of the sub-regions of the North West have
areas with prices in the top fifth of postcode sectors nationally,
concentrated in Cheshire and central Cumbria, but also in north
and west Lancashire, parts of Merseyside and south Greater Manchester.
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